New data shows Valley growth, shrinking workforce and rising housing costs

WENATCHEE — Population growth in the Wenatchee Valley is steady but slowing, household incomes are rising, and housing costs continue to outpace affordability, according to new regional data presented April 29 at the Wenatchee Convention Center.

Dr. Patrick Jones, an economist with Eastern Washington University, shared the latest findings from the Chelan-Douglas Trends data portal during a Partners in Economic Development breakfast hosted by the Chelan-Douglas Regional Port Authority.

The site, chelandouglastrends.com, compiles demographic and economic data for Chelan and Douglas counties and is funded through a partnership of local agencies and organizations. Jones described the data not as abstract figures, but as a collection of “individual stories” that reflect how the region is changing.

The two-county population reached about 128,000 in 2025 and is projected to grow by roughly 4,800 residents by 2030, an increase of about 4 percent. That growth is almost entirely driven by people moving into the region rather than natural population increases.

“About 90 percent of that growth is from people moving here,” Jones said.

The pace of growth now roughly matches the statewide rate after years of trailing it, raising what Jones framed as a broader community question of how much growth is the right amount.

Median household income in Chelan and Douglas counties reached about $80,000 in 2024, roughly on par with the national average. That marks a notable shift, as the region has not always kept pace with national income levels.

At the same time, incomes still lag behind the statewide median of about $100,000, highlighting a persistent east-west economic gap. Local wages have grown faster than the state average in recent years, suggesting that gap may be narrowing.

Housing continues to be one of the most significant pressures in the regional economy. The median home price in the two counties rose from about $282,000 in 2016 to roughly $516,000 in 2024, an increase of more than 80 percent.

“I assure you, your incomes have not gone up 83 percent,” Jones said, noting the disconnect between housing prices and earnings.

Indeed, incomes have not kept pace, leading to a sharp decline in affordability. By one measure cited in the presentation, the region’s housing affordability index has dropped to around 70, well below the level considered balanced.

Jones said housing is also the primary reason the Wenatchee Valley is now more expensive than other Eastern Washington metros such as Spokane and the Tri-Cities.

At the same time, the region’s workforce is shrinking. Jones said the total number of people working or actively seeking work has declined from about 65,000 in 2019 to roughly 61,000 in 2025. The workforce participation rate has also fallen, from about 69 percent a decade ago to 58 percent.

The shift is largely tied to demographics, particularly an aging population moving into retirement.

But that conclusion drew questions from the audience.

During a question-and-answer session, developer Malachi Salcido pointed to the number of workers currently in the region for large construction and data center projects, many of whom are not permanent residents.

“If someone’s traveling here for work, are they included in that participation rate?” Salcido asked.

Jones said they are not.

Workers employed by companies based outside the region or not domiciled locally are generally not captured in the data, even if they are actively working in the valley.

“You’re seeing it in spending,” Jones said. “You’re not seeing it in official labor force.”

Salcido said that disconnect can make the data feel incomplete.

“There’s thousands of people working every day out there,” he said.

Even with that gap, Jones said the broader trend remains a challenge for long-term economic planning.

Despite declines in agricultural exports in recent years, other economic indicators remain strong. Taxable retail sales in the two counties reached about $4.7 billion in 2024, with growth outpacing the statewide rate over the past five years.

Jones said that increase is likely driven in part by construction activity, tourism and pandemic-era spending patterns that have continued to carry forward.

He said the region faces a mix of opportunities and constraints, with population growth continuing, incomes rising and spending remaining strong, even as workforce participation and housing affordability present ongoing challenges.

Understanding how those forces interact will be key as local leaders make decisions about economic development, infrastructure and long-term growth.

“These are stories behind the numbers,” Jones said. “And the question is what they’re telling us about where we’re headed.”

Andrew Simpson: 509-433-7626 or andrew@ward.media